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20121129
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saying if we go over the fiscal cliff the unemployment rate will jump recession and customarily when are you in a recession the unemployment rate goes up 3 percentage points. does that sound right to you. and if that is the case what does this mean for consumers and for businesses? >> well, the seriously bad news. but i think what is important is not just whether we go over the cliff but how long we stay over there. i mean if it turns out that they need a couple more days to hammer out an accord i don't think that will have a big lasting effect. but if we go over the cliff and all those spending cuts and tax hikes go into effect and stay in effect for the whole year, then you would be talking about a very high likelihood of a recession and rising unemployment, substantial rise, we can quibble about how much. but it would be seriously bad news for consumers and businesses. >> as you know the federal reserve is going to be meeting next week on tuesday. certainly this is all going to be a topic around the table. is there a role for the federal reserve in this fiscal cliff back and forth
of what happens with the fiscal cliff? >> i think it will. we have said for some time that businesses have pushed productivity as far as they can. if we continue at a modest, 2.5% growth rate, that will be enough that businesses wi be fced to higher at a faster pace. >> tom: but we're not hearing a lot of confidence coming from the business community. we're seeing it in housing and automotive sales, but in terms of hiring, it is languishing. why do you think that difference exists? >> i think business is looking ahead. there is a real dichotomy, as you mentioned, between businesses and costumers. businesses are looking ahead, and they're thinking with increased taxes, because of the fiscal cliff, if the worst happens, consumer demand is just going to fall off. they are already ting action today to try to prepare for that eventuality. but the consumer is kind of blankly ignoring this, and confidence is up for really lots of reasons. i mean, the net worth of households has been repaired. about two-thirds of it has come back as house prices rise and stock prices are now double what they were
Search Results 0 to 6 of about 7 (some duplicates have been removed)